{"id":7048,"date":"2019-12-05T08:00:06","date_gmt":"2019-12-05T12:00:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/viacapitaledumontroyal.com\/?p=7048"},"modified":"2020-06-17T13:43:32","modified_gmt":"2020-06-17T17:43:32","slug":"les-affaires-cmhc-conference-on-the-housing-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/viacapitaledumontroyal.com\/en\/les-affaires-cmhc-conference-on-the-housing-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Les Affaires\/CMHC conference on the housing market\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yesterday morning was the CMHC\/Les Affaires conference on The housing market (available in French only)<\/em><\/a> in the Montreal area.<\/h2>\n
<\/div>\n

I have been attending this conference for many years and each time, I like the analysis that CMHC economists do based on the sales data of real estate brokers in Montreal. I am close to the action: the brokers in my agency have been helping our clients sell or purchase tens of thousands of homes for many years. It is always interesting to see these sales as a whole, with the hindsight and purely economical perspective of economic analysts.<\/p>\n

Here are the highlights of the conference<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • Fundamental factors are strong, resulting from the current strength of the market.<\/li>\n
  • Job creation, interest rates remain low, population growth is very strong, consumer confidence is high, in short, everything is in place for Montrealers to be inclined to buy a property.<\/li>\n
  • Prices will continue to rise in 2020 and 2021: Predictions of 5% per year.<\/li>\n
  • Montreal, which had traditionally had a net migration of 19,000 people for years, saw it jump to 78,000 in 2018 and 80,000 in 2019.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    The household debt ratio in Canada<\/h4>\n
      \n
    • Montreal 162%.<\/li>\n
    • Toronto: 208%.<\/li>\n
    • Vancouver: 232%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      When we compare ourselves, we are comforted! However, Montrealers have debts other than mortgages, unlike the rest of Canada. So, caution in consumer spending!<\/p>\n

      CMHC considers that the market is “green” (therefore fluid, Go) and not “red” (Attention, stop) for 3 reasons<\/h3>\n
        \n
      1. The acceleration of prices is correct<\/li>\n
      2. There is not too much overvaluation on the market (speculation)<\/li>\n
      3. There is no overbuilding. However, there are signs of overheating that we will have to monitor closely.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        For the current year, home sales by real estate brokers to the MLS system totalled 37,000 ! This figure is expected to reach 50,000 by December 31, 2019. A very strong increase compared to the last few decades.<\/p>\n

        And it’s going to continue! Here are the CMHC forecasts: 2020: between 47,000 and 53,000 MLS 2021 sales: between 47,000 and 54,000 MLS sales<\/p>\n

        Why are there fewer homes for sale?<\/h3>\n

        Strong demand from buyers. The flow is fast. Fewer new buildings.<\/em><\/h4>\n

        Households that already have a home are afraid to move because they don’t know if they will find the desired new home after selling, given the limited number of homes available on the market.<\/p>\n

        Interestingly, there is a misperception of the impact of foreign investors on the market by the Montreal population:<\/p>\n

        According to CMHC data, there are only 2% of non-resident buyers in Montreal and they are concentrated in the downtown area.<\/p>\n

        CMHC conducted a survey of home buyers in 2018. To the question “what do you think are the factors that influence prices a LOT”, here is what Montrealers answered:<\/p>\n

          \n
        • Employment and population: 30%.<\/li>\n
        • Scarcity of supply: 43%.<\/li>\n
        • Foreign investors: 52%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

          So, between perception and reality, things are not always what they seem to be.<\/p>\n

          These forecasts confirm that the Montreal real estate market appears to be on the right track for the next two years.<\/p>\n

           <\/p>\n

          Nathalie Cl\u00e9ment<\/strong><\/div>\n
          Director, <\/span>Via Capitale Du Mont-Royal<\/span><\/div>\n

           <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          Yesterday morning was the CMHC\/Les Affaires conference on The housing market (available in French only) in the Montreal area. 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